Tesla may launch its own cobalt-free battery lithium salt industry again in spring

Favorable policies, a certain technology stock will become a new outlet?

Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the opening column of the Trading Day Financial Morning Post.

  Original title Tesla may produce its own “cobalt-free” battery □ Our reporter Cui Xiaosu recently reported that Tesla and Ningde Times have discussed battery supply and plan to use “cobalt-free” lithium iron phosphate batteries (LTP)Promote production, both sides agree on intentional negotiations.

The Ningde Times responded to the China Securities Journal reporter on the 20th that the current cooperation with Tesla is not an “intentional agreement”
and it has penetrated into a mass production supply pricing agreement with Tesla.

Expert analysis believes that the purpose of Tesla’s use of lithium iron phosphate is to “reduce cost and volume”, and lithium iron phosphate batteries have once again revived, which is good for the lithium salt industry.

  Intended to reduce costs and volume On February 20, Ningde Times stated that the company has the ability to provide suitable and competitive solutions according to customer needs, and bring value to customers.

The Ningde era also weighed at the same time. The current cooperation with Tesla is not an “intentional agreement”. The company currently runs a “mass production supply pricing agreement” with Tesla. Tesla will purchase lithium-ion power from the Ningde eraBattery, everything is subject to the announcement.

  According to the Ningde Times announcement on the company’s business cooperation with Tesla, the company and Tesla have now entered into a mass production supply pricing agreement, within the agreed period (July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2022)(Japan) Tesla will purchase lithium-ion power batteries from Ningde Times. The specific purchase situation will be determined by Tesla on the basis of orders.

  Officials told the China Securities Journal that Tesla and Ningde Times negotiated a “probability of” cobalt-free “batteries that refer to lithium iron phosphate batteries. Negotiations have now been basically confirmed.

  At present, the mainstream types of power batteries are divided into lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries.

Cobalt, as one of the important raw materials for ternary batteries, is mainly used for lithium ion orientation materials, which can significantly increase the energy density of lithium batteries.

Due to the higher energy density of the cobalt-free technology gate, the performance is higher, the investment is high, and the cycle is long. Many companies have developed their own ternary technical routes. Therefore, domestic battery manufacturers have not yet developed a true “cobalt-free” technology.battery.
  Above the ternary battery, the lithium iron phosphate battery has better safety and reduced cost.

“In order to complete the gambling agreement and continuously increase the domestic market share, Tesla needs to develop a low-priced product of 15-20 million. Using lithium iron phosphate batteries can significantly reduce costs.

“In the interview with China Securities Journal reporter, Mo Ke, president of True Lithium Research, said that the main purpose of Tesla’s use of lithium iron phosphate is to” reduce cost and volume “.And if it uses lithium iron phosphate batteries instead of ternary batteries in domestic cars, one car can save 2 million.

According to true lithium research statistics, the current cost of lithium iron phosphate battery is about 0.

65 yuan / Wh, about 30% lower than the cost of ternary batteries.

  Lithium iron phosphate has regained its precipitation. Under the background that new energy vehicle subsidy policies tend to supplement high energy density, lithium iron phosphate batteries with energy density replacement have expanded on passenger cars.

From the current point of view, the energy density of ternary lithium batteries has reached 300Wh / kg, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 200Wh / kg.

  Data from the China Automotive 合肥夜网 Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in 2019, the previous installed capacity of power batteries increased by 62.

2GWh, a gradual increase of 9 per year.

2%.

The ternary battery capacity is 40.

5GWh, accounting for 65 of the total installed capacity.

2%, which had previously increased by 22%.

5%; the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 20.

2GWh, accounting for 32 of the total installed capacity.

5%, gradually decreasing by 9 per year.

0%.

  The negotiations on battery supply between Tesla and Ningde Times directly brought the recovery of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

According to the statistics of the China Commercial Industry Research Institute, the top five battery manufacturers in terms of installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2019 are Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BYD, Eternal Lithium Energy, and Penghui Energy.

  Some officials analyzed whether the agreement between Tesla and Ningde Times will use lithium iron phosphate batteries, or will use lithium iron phosphate’s CTP (celltopack) solution.

The so-called CTP, based on the initial battery chemistry system, is optimized through the design of battery cells and the integration of battery packs, which will be transformed into a three-layer structure from cells to modules to battery packs, and improved from cells to batteriesThe two-layer structure of the package improves the overall energy density of the battery pack in the saved module space.

  According to the crystal metabolism data of the Ningde era, and the proportion of traditional battery packs, CTP battery packs eliminate the assembly and disassembly of battery modules, increase volume by 15% -20%, reduce the number of parts by 40%, and increase energy density by 10%15%, 50% increase in production efficiency.

However, the application of CTP platform in the era of Ningde seems to have a more meaningful ternary battery route.

  Analysts in the automobile industry of CITIC Securities believe that without a major accident with the existing Tesla Model 3 chassis, Tesla can use lithium iron phosphate CTP batteries to hold 53-55KWh, and the corresponding range can reach 400-450km.

If the Model 3 is revised, the cruising range may reach 450km or 460km.

However, the development cycle of switching from existing models to CTP may take one and a half to two years.Although the concept of CTP seems simple, it involves technical problems that need to be overcome.

“In some cases, a special glue is used in CTP, and it takes time to change the cell size.

At present, lithium iron phosphate batteries are basically not used overseas, causing awareness. After Tesla uses lithium iron phosphate batteries, due to low cost and high cost performance, it may cause industrial changes.

“The above-mentioned analysts of the CITIC Securities auto industry said that the” cobalt-free “batteries negotiated by Tesla and Ningde Times drove the resurgence of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is reflected in the background of the hope of” parity “with traditional cars, showing the diversity of battery technologyInstead of continuously pursuing performance beyond the best, even after reaching a certain stage, “suitable” and “enough” are just fine.

In addition, the purpose of Tesla’s use of lithium iron phosphate is to “reduce cost and volume”, really promote the popularity of electric vehicles, and the boots bring a revolution in energy.

  CICC Automotive analysts pointed out that the bottom of the lithium iron phosphate industry chain has passed, which corresponds to the significant elasticity of transformation. The supply margin of lithium carbonate over-demand has improved, and it is expected to usher in a marked improvement in 2020.

The decrease in battery capacity directly affects the cost reduction and competitiveness improvement brought about by lithium iron phosphate batteries; the switch to demand has significant elasticity, leading enterprises have prominent advantages; and the margin of demand for lithium carbonate content is better.

  The use of cobalt-free batteries by Moco believes that the use of lithium iron phosphate products is not strictly in line with Tesla’s positioning, which may be Tesla’s adjustments to the actual situation of the Chinese market.

Tesla may apply different power batteries to different models of Model 3.

For example, a lithium iron phosphate battery is used on the low battery life version, and a ternary battery is selected on the high battery life version.

In the long run, ternary battery replacement continues to replace the mainstream in the passenger car market.

  ”From the perspective of the battery route, the development direction of the battery energy density of electric passenger cars will continue to increase.

In addition to electrification, the development direction of automobiles also needs to focus on intelligence and networking. Therefore, in addition to ensuring that the car has sufficient cruising range, it must also provide sufficient power support for various software.

Said Mo Ke.

  Tesla’s latest statement made the matter more suspicious.

On February 21, some netizens asked Tesla’s official account “Tesla Shanghai Super Factory” in the comment area: Is Tesla about to purchase Ningde era cobalt-free batteries?

“Tesla Shanghai Super Factory” replied below: “Please note that Tesla’s battery conference in April is free of cobalt, which does not mean it must be lithium iron phosphate.

“The comment was deleted.

  Some analysts pointed out that this battery technology may be related to the battery factory Maxwell that Tesla acquired in 2019.

In May 2019, Tesla acquired Maxwell at a premium of 55%, turning it into a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tesla.

Maxwell is a technology company with super capacitors and battery technology at its core.

The outstanding feature of the super capacitor is its fast charging speed, which can reach more than 95% of its rated capacity after charging for 10 seconds to 10 minutes.

At the same time, the cycle length is long, and the deep charge and discharge cycle can be used for 1 to 500,000 times without “memory effect”.

  It is understood that Maxwell’s ultracapacitors have a variety of sizes, capacities and module configurations to choose from. They are complementary solutions to batteries, which can extend battery replacement and, in some cases, completely replace batteries.

The company’s products include compressible fans, public transportation, hybrid vehicles, consumer electronics and industrial equipment. Nowadays, more than 65 million super capacitor units have been used worldwide.

  In fact, Tesla has been working to promote the use of cobalt-free batteries.

During the 2019 Tesla earnings call, some analysts mentioned changes in the price of commodities such as cobalt, and Musk said at the time that the amount of cobalt could be reduced to zero.

  If Tesla makes its own battery, how will it affect battery companies?

Citic Securities pointed out that considering that Tesla’s future production capacity will exceed 2 million units in the long term, based on an average of 70kWh per bicycle, the battery capacity required in 2020 will exceed 40GWh, and the long-term demand will exceed 150GWh.

Due to the Matthew effect (scale, cost, performance curve) of battery production, it is expected that most of Tesla’s batteries will still be provided by external independent third-party suppliers.

Taking into account the future market size and the first-mover advantages of various battery manufacturers, it is expected that for Ningde, Panasonic, and LG third-party battery companies, the actual impact will be relatively small.