Changchun High-tech (000661): Significantly better than expected Jinsai and vaccine growth
Event: The company announced the third quarter of 2019: the first three quarters achieved revenue54.44 trillion, +31 a year.50%; net profit attributable to mother 12.41 trillion, ten years +47.93%; deducted non-attributed net profit 12.3.2 billion, an annual increase of 50.61%; net operating cash flow 15.76 trillion, +423 ten years ago.21%; earnings per share 7.29 yuan.The performance significantly exceeded market expectations. Opinion: Jinsai’s profit exceeded expectations, and the Q3 batch of 100 vaccines was significantly improved.Q3 single quarter company revenue 20.5.2 billion yuan, +47 a year.59%; deduct non-net profit 5.1.3 billion, ten years +69.56%.Among them, the income of the main pharmaceutical industry is +30 per year.99%, net profit +49.58%, exceeding market expectations.We expect it to be mainly due to the faster-than-expected growth of Q3’s Q3 results.After excluding the main pharmaceutical industry, real estate Q3 once again contributed profits.According to grassroots research, growth hormone sales in the first three quarters of at least + 45%, we expect Kinsey Q1?3 Realized revenue of about 3.5 billion, about + 45%; the first three quarters of 100 free vaccines (varicella) were issued in batches of 5.36 million bottles, with a slight increase every year.Considering that the issuance of mad vaccines in the first three quarters of this year has not been resumed, we expect that the first three quarters of Biogram will remain basically the same.Huakang Pharmaceutical is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of about 10%.From this we calculated that the first three quarters of Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s net profit was about 1.4 billion US dollars, more than + 50% in a row, Q3 single quarter net profit was about 600 million US dollars, more than + 70%. The overall gross profit margin increased significantly, 无锡桑拿网 and the selling expenses and management expenses ratios steadily decreased.Due to the rapid growth of high gross profit biological products, Q3’s comprehensive gross profit margin reached 90%, which further increased by 2.22pct, a record high.In Q3, the company’s sales expense ratio decreased by 2 percentage points, while the management + R & D expense ratio decreased by 2 percentage points (management expenses + 16%, R & D expenses increased by 14%, which is significantly lower than the increase in revenue). The above factors have caused the company’s profit growth rate to far exceed the income growth rate, and the scale effect has become more apparent. Nasal influenza vaccine is expected to end its listing and the innovation pipeline will continue to grow in the future.The nasal spray influenza vaccine has completed the initial on-site inspection and has been submitted for inspection. It is expected to be approved by the end of the year or early next year.Ruizhou 20-valent pneumonia vaccine is expected to be declared clinical next year.New products such as diabetic, RSV, measles vaccine and other products are under development, and the vaccine pipeline is gradually enriching.The company will build two innovative R & D platforms for monoclonal antibodies and chemical drugs. The innovation pipeline is expected to be in the future1?Very rich in 2 years. Earnings forecast and estimation: Q3 performance exceeded expectations, raising EPS from 19-21 to 8.46/11.02/14.11 (original 7.95/10.48/13.73 yuan). After the restructuring, the pro forma net profit for 19-21 is 19.5/25.7/33.1 ppm (corresponding to 42/32 / 25X in 19-21 years).The current performance matches the estimate and maintains a “Buy” rating. Risk warning: New product development progress is not up to expectations