Impression of Sanxiang (000863): Cultural performing arts maintain stable growth, Yanjiao property market warms up and forms strong catalyst

Key points of investment: The cultural performing arts business has grown steadily, and the “main real estate + culture” dual main business model has begun to take shape.

After the company acquired the impressions in 2016, the cultural performing arts project has entered an accelerated growth period. At present, the company has a total of 17 production and contract production projects, of which 10 performances or contract projects are realized within 3 years after the completion of the acquisition.

By the beginning of 2019, “Seeing Melaka again”, “Returning to the Three Gorges” and “Return to Zunyi · Long March” have been staged on schedule. In 2019, it is expected that “Impression Dianchi” and “Impression Dianchi” will be completed and entered the stage of public performance.

With projects that gradually mature through the incubation period, the revenue growth engine of the cultural performing arts business will switch to the box office segmentation business of each project, and the sustainability of growth is strengthened. The overall box office ledger revenue is expected to be separately in 2019 and 2020.Achieve 17% and 13% growth rates.

The real estate business focuses on first-tier cities, and the growth of residential properties in Yanjiao has been a strong catalyst.

As of 2018H1, the company’s remaining saleable area is 21.

180,000 square meters, all of which are concentrated in first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou. The safety margin of the project is high.

In 2019, Sanxiang Haishangdi (Shanghai Pudong) and Sanxiang Haishangdi (Shanghai Chongming) are expected to continue to be carried forward and are expected to contribute to the increase in profits in 19 years.

With the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Beijing area is expanding toward Tongzhou, and the traffic on the Xinpinggu line of the alternate subway is favorable. The initial plots in the suburbs of 无锡桑拿网 East Yanyan will gradually heat up.

The planned construction area of the company’s Yanjiao project is about 117.

930,000 square meters, with a value-added rate of about 226%. The underground project and parking lot of some plots of the existing project have been completed. The first-phase results are expected to enter sales in 2020. If the Yanjiao project can be successfully developed and listed as planned, it will be the future of the company.Bring ample cash back over the years.

Leadership holdings demonstrate confidence and the 18-year performance commitment is expected to be realized.

From July 15 to the present, the company’s executives have successively increased their stakes in the company, forming a bond of interests and showing confidence in the company’s operations.

In 2017, affected by the bankruptcy and 无锡夜网 reorganization of the subsidiary Guilin Guangwei Wenhua, the company’s performance commitment completion rate replaced 82.

48%.

According to the agreement, if the company realizes net profit in 2018.

95 ppm, you can complete the commitment to obtain performance rewards. Based on the impression of 56% net interest rate, the revenue required to achieve the profit level here is about 3.

4.5 billion US dollars, which is the same as last year and can basically be completed.

Profit forecast and investment advice: The company grasps the high-speed development period of leisure travel, timely enters the cultural and performing arts industry, and comprehensively opens the “cultural + real estate” two-wheel drive strategic layout.Promotion.

According to the segment appraisal method for estimation, the company’s real estate business corresponds to appraisal51.

74 trillion, the corresponding impression is estimated at 28 trillion, the total market value is expected to be 80 trillion, and there is still room for 18% growth.

The EPS for 2018-2020 is expected to be 0.

32/0.

84/1.

05, corresponding to PE 15/6/5, for the first time covering the “overweight” rating of the attachment.

Risk reminder: The growth of passenger flow is lower than expected, and the construction progress of Yanjiao project is lower than expected