Poly Real Estate (600048) 2019 Annual Results Express Review

Event: On the evening of January 8th, Poly Real Estate disclosed the 2019 performance report.

According to the report baseline, the company’s total operating income has increased by 21 every year.

1%, operating profit grows 41.

4%, profit grows 41.

2%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 40.


Comment: In 19 years, revenues increased by + 21% and performance increased by + 41%, mainly due to carry-over scale and gross margin improvement. The company is expected to achieve operating income of 2,355 in 2019.

4 ‰, +21 a year.

1%; operating profit 503.

100 million, +41 a year.

4%; profit totals 505.

100 million, +41 a year.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 265.

7 trillion, +40 for ten years.

6%; deducted non-attributed net profit 256.

600 million, previously +42.

1%; yield 2.

23 yuan, +40 for ten years.

1%; estimated average return on net assets is 18.

8%, +2 per year.

18pct; the company ‘s performance exceeded expectations by a large margin mainly due to: 1) the gradual completion of the construction and actively promoted the significant increase in the scale of project carryover; 2) the change in the structure of the carryover promoted the gross profit margin of the carryover project to rise and increase, and the operating profit margin was 21.

4%, an increase of 3 per year.

1pct, net interest rate 11.

3%, increase by 1 every year.

6pct; taking into account that the company’s final receipts in 19Q3 reached 3,829 trillion, which was +27 at the end of the earlier 18 years.

7%, which can cover 163% of 19-year revenue, and the company’s sales scale continues to increase steadily, which will jointly guarantee the continued release of the company’s subsequent performance.

In addition, it is recognized that the company expects the dividend rate to stabilize at around 30%, and the high performance in 19 years will push the segment rate to 4.

5%, a high index is extremely attractive.

The sales in 1919 were 461.9 billion, more than + 14%. The excellent layout and abundant saleable sales continued to increase steadily. The company achieved a contracted amount of 4,618 in 19 years.

500 million, ten years +14.

1%, ranking fifth in the industry in terms of sales; contracted area of 3,123.

10,000 square meters, +12 per year.


The cumulative average selling price is 14,788 yuan / square meter, which is +1 from the previous 18 years.

0%; taking the land, the company’s land market in the 19 years received 127 new projects, adding 2,681 all-round surface, -12 every year.

9%; corresponding to a total land price of 155.3 billion yuan, a year-19.
0%; the average floor price is 5,791 yuan / square meter, -7 per year.

0%; the proportion of land area rights is 72.
1%, +4 from 18 years earlier.

8pct; Take up 33% of the land.

6%, 18-18 years earlier.

7pct, although relatively careful about land acquisition, since November the attitude towards land acquisition has obviously turned positive; and, considering that the company’s saleable area at the end of 19H1 exceeded 8,499 GM, the corresponding value exceeded 1.

With 31 trillion yuan, the company’s abundant land reserves and active land acquisition will jointly ensure that there are abundant resources available for sale in 20 years.

And it is expected that the company’s layout is mainly located in first- and second-tier cities with tight supply and demand relations. Against the background of the current relatively stable first- and second-tier markets, sales are expected to continue to increase steadily for 20 years.

Investment suggestion: The performance is beyond expectations, highlighting the leading example, and renewing the “strong push” rating. The company ‘s active transformation began in 16 years. In terms of goals, Chairman Song Guangju proposed to return to the top three in the industry in the next three years, revealing the leading spirit of central 成都桑拿网 enterprises;In 17 years, a vigorous follow-up investment program was launched to lead the highest level of central SOEs to eliminate the lack of incentives. In terms of resource integration, the acquisition of real estate projects affiliated to AVIC Group has been completed, and Poly Real Estate’s equity acquisition has also made breakthrough progress, highlighting the advantages of resource integration.The company is actively acquiring land, focusing on the first-tier and second-tier cities and urban areas. The optimization of the structure of land acquisition and the steady decline in costs, meanwhile, the company’s sales have continued to increase rapidly. At present, the performance has entered a bumper period.

In addition, the listing of Poly Real Estate’s Hong Kong stocks is beneficial to the company’s assessment.

In view of the company ‘s 19-year performance release beyond expectations and rich advances, we raised the company’s 2019-21 earnings to 2.

23, 2.

67, 3.

08 yuan (the original value is 2.

06, 2.

47, 3.

00 yuan), corresponding to the PE of 19-20 is 7.

0 and 5.

8 times, 18A, 19E dividend yields reached 3 respectively.

2% and 4.

5%, maintain target price of 20.

62 yuan, “strong push” level again.

Risk reminder: Real estate industry policy tightens more than expected and industry funds tighten more than expected