Baiyun Airport (600004): Non-aviation business starts to make great achievements
Baiyun Airport currently reaches the lowest point of performance, but through the continuous release of the company’s T2 capacity, aviation revenue + non-aeronautical revenue will open up growth space, and the profit return will continue to repair.
Due to the significant cost drag in 19 years and the expected rapid growth of international passengers in 20 years, we have revised down 19 years and raised 20 years, and at the same time added 21 years of profit forecasts. EPS for 2019/20/21 is expected to be 0.
89 yuan, corresponding to the current PE of 34.
0x, the combined DCF absolute valuation is 55 billion US dollars, raised the target price to 17 深圳桑拿网 yuan, and maintain the “strongly recommended -A” investment rating.
The company released its 18th annual report and 19th quarter report, which slightly exceeded our expectations.
Baiyun Airport achieved revenue of 77 in 2018.
4.6 billion (+14.
57%), net profit attributable to mother 11.
2.9 billion (-29.
24% yoy), basic EPS 0.
55 yuan (-32.
93% yoy), with an expected ROE of 7.
36%, higher than -4.
88pcts, the proposed dividend is 0.
17 yuan, the dividend ratio is 31%.
In Q1 2019, it achieved revenue of 19.
1.7 billion (+11.
26% yoy), net profit attributable to mother 2.
2.4 billion (-48.
Year-on-year growth of 34%).
In Q1 of 19, the performance reached a low point, and it is expected that there will be a 50% increase in profit in 20 years.
T2 was launched in April of 18, with a total of 12 depreciation temporarily.
55 trillion US 深圳桑拿网 dollars, + 178% per year; meanwhile, labor costs / utility costs have increased significantly, each time + 194% / 42.
In addition, in November 18, the refund of construction costs began to be cancelled. In 19, the company is expected to reduce its revenue by $ 800-900 million.
Overall, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for 18 years11.
2.9 billion yuan, slightly more than we expected11.
1.5 billion US dollars, cost control is better; in Q1 19 through capacity improvement lags behind, the realization of traffic is not obvious, is a low performance, but converted to T2 production capacity entered a climbing period, it is expected that 20 years of profit has 50% growth space.
It is expected that the proportion of international tourists in 21 years will rise to 26.
25%, non-aviation revenue is expected to be 6 billion yuan.
Baiyun Airport has heavy traffic during the summer and autumn of 19, and weekly flights are +6.
5%, leading the first-line airport, and benefiting from the launch of the southern destination, it is expected that the passenger explosion will increase before and after 19-21.
In addition, the company continues to develop international routes. It is expected that international passengers will reach 22.99 million in 21 years, and the proportion will increase to 26.
25%, the airport’s commercial realizing ability continued to improve.
In the long run, advertising revenue / tax-exempt revenue / commercial lease is expected to reach 10 in 21 years.
1.3 billion / 9.
4.3 billion / 14.
26 trillion, non-aviation revenue looks to 60 trillion, the proportion of revenue will increase to 57%.
Risk Warning: China Southern Airlines Operation and Financial Deterioration, Bad Weather, Airport Charge Policy Changes